The Year 2012 May Be Better Than We Expect

I know that the realists amongst us are generally against the idea of a "New Years Resolution". They pride themselves for not making any such resolutions because to them the 1st of January is just another day in the calendar and a continuation of this long drawn-out thing called life, so who cares about the first day of the year. 

 

However, it crossed my mind whilst enjoying the company of friends in early hours of 1 January 2012 that, irrespective of how smart you may want to sound, the first day of anything, is something human beings tend to treasure. Think about the first day of your life, the first day of school, the first day of University, the first day you saw her and the first day of 'the rest of your lives together'.

So, its human nature to attach some importance to the 1st day of a year. For many it has meaning. It provides an opportunity to make a fresh start. It's as if the universe has restarted the clock. It's as if you have just finished the race of 2011. Checked your distance. Checked your achievements. Took a breath. And now you get to start another race. The race of 2012.

Irrespective of whether 2011 was good or bad to you, the 1st January 2012 is an opportunity to give this thing we call life another shot.

Today, I came across an article entitled "If you've got a job, be happy" by Maya Fischer-French which got me thinking about what 2012 holds for South Africans in light of the turmoil in Europe, the growth slowdown in Asia, and many other domestic factors.

This article gave some evidence to the "gut-feel" I have that 2012 may be a better year than we all expect. Economically that is. Mangaung remains a topic for another day!

Enjoy.

"IF YOU'VE GOT A JOB, BE HAPPY"

by MAYA FISHER-FRENCH - 

20 Jan 2012

"If you have a job and some assets, you are better off than you realise. Indicators of economic activity released over the past few months suggest that our economy is starting to find its footing and 2012 may be better than we expect, despite the general pessimism about the eurozone.

Bond originator ooba recorded a 33% increase in the value of bonds approved in November, the highest recorded since May 2008 before the global financial meltdown.

The FNB estate agent survey shows that more first-time buyers are entering the market. After collapsing to 15% of total buyers in 2008, the percentage of first-time buyers rose from 17% in 2010 to 23% in 2011. This is the highest percentage of first-time buyers since 2005. Affordability affects this market the most as they require a significant deposit and find it more challenging to get credit without a track record.

On the upside, retail sales growth has continued to surprise economists and the good news is that we are doing it without taking on additional debt. Credit extension figures for households are the weakest ever recorded post-recession and, according to FNB's household debt-service risk index, the vulnerability of the country's household sector when it comes to being able to service its debt appears to be diminishing. The index shows that, although household debt is not at a comfortable level, it is moving in the right direction.

Revenue collection figures at the end of November showed that government revenue collection exceeded expectations, with value-added tax (VAT) revenue up 26%, excise duties up 37% and a 14% increase in personal income tax. VAT and excise duties are good indicators of spending, and higher personal tax collection suggests either higher wages or more jobs. Either way there is more money to spend.

Although it may not feel like it, South African consumers are, on aggregate, substantially better off than they were a decade ago. The issue, though, is that the wealth effect is not yet broad-based and remains limited to those who are employed and have assets.

Reserve Bank figures show that household net wealth clocked in at R6.5-trillion at the end of last year, increasing by 9.7% on the previous year. This is a record level despite the recent global economic turmoil.

Over the past seven years, household wealth increased by slightly more than R3-trillion, an average annual growth rate of 12.9%. Most of this is in the form of financial assets (R4.6-trillion), including bank deposits, pension funds and unit trusts. Residential property makes up R1.6-trillion.

South Africa's household debt makes up R1.2-trillion, which leaves us with a net asset base of R5.3-trillion. According to Stanlib economist Kevin Lings, although some homeowners may be struggling to keep up their bond instalments, on aggregate the value of residential property was equal to 210% of the amount owed on these properties."

The Negotiated Settlement

Last week, I set out to blog about my strong view that BBBEE needs to start wielding a very big stick. How BBBEE can no longer rely on the goodwill of white corporate SA to accelerate the effective participation of Blacks. Then I realised that I hold another view about where this actually comes from: CODESA.

CODESA is effectively the series of negotiations between 1990 and 1993 that ‘officially’ ended the apartheid system in South Africa. These negotiations took place between the governing National Party, the African National Congress, and a wide variety of other political organisations. Negotiations took place against a backdrop of political violence in the country, including allegations of a state-sponsored third force destabilising the country. The negotiations resulted in South Africa's first multi-racial election, which was won by the ANC.

In my view there were only two agenda items at CODESA: Political Transformation and Economic Transformation.  Obviously I was not privy to the discussions that took place there. I wasn’t even old enough to vote in 1994, let alone understand CODESA. I have, however, since seen a few snippets of Nelson Mandela telling FW de Klerk where to get off during negotiations. That was fascinating to watch. However, based on the policies that came out of the ANC on economic transformation post the 1994 elections, one started to see signs of what was perhaps agreed or more importantly, what was conceded!

Why am I concerned about the concessions? Well, it is my strong view that ‘our‘ victory over apartheid was somewhat undermined by what eventually became a ‘negotiated settlement’. Some may argue that the negotiations saved the country from what could’ve become a bloody and devastating civil war that would have taken the country back decades in infrastructure development and economic prosperity.

However, every negotiated settlement has concessions. No party gets everything they want in a negotiated settlement. The question we now have the benefit of hindsight to ask is: What exactly did ‘we’ concede, what was the real price of these concessions, and what do we have to do to reverse these losses?

Let me first say that I don't profess to know what the black political leaders were going through on that CODESA table. I am certain that they did the best they could at the time. I imagine though, that they would’ve carefully considered the concessions they had to make, against the wins they needed to secure. After all that's effectively what negotiation is about: You lose what you value less, in order to gain what you value more. Its a relative measure, not an absolute one. Everything is important, but certain things are critical. You secure the 'critical' and live with conceding some of the 'important'.

Back to the agenda. I am certain that economic transformation was a bigger debate at CODESA. The writing was on the wall in so far as political transformation was concerned. There would have to be free and fair elections to allow the people of South Africa to decide for themselves who shall rule. The economy though.... not that easy.

Fast forward a few years, and we start getting some indication on what was agreed on this thorny issue: Economic Evolution NOT Economic Revolution.

In summary, it was agreed that the Government of National Unity would chart a programme whereby Black people would be accelerated to become economically active and be part of mainstream economy. We would start with ownership. We would have a programme called Black Economic Empowerment. This programme would seek to have at least 25,1% of the economy transferred to Black hands over a period. The Nats probably thought: 'This would surely satisfy the call by the ANC for the people to ‘own the means of production’. The ANC was probably thinking: ‘It's not everything we want, but it's a start. Lets concede on this one, keep the economy stable. Tell our people there will be a process, whilst we get to grips with running a country. Besides we would now be running the state coffers!’

It's been 17 years since the first democratic elections. Where are we on this 'negotiated settlement' of Economic Evolution?

To fully appreciate where we are, let me preamble by restating the population demographics of South Africa, according to Stats SA’s mid-year Estimates 2011.

Mid-year population estimates for South Africa by population group. Mid-Year Estimates 2011	Total
	Number	% of total population
African	40 206 275	79,5
Coloured	4 539 790	9,0
Indian/Asian	1 274 867	2,5
White	4 565 825	9,0
Total	50 586 757	100,0

Chew on these statistics as we review the state of economic transformation in South Africa today over the next few blogs!

The United States of America

Earlier today i received an email from a friend entitled "The Unites States of America".

It wents as follows:

"It is raining, and the little town looks totally deserted. It is tough times, everybody is in debt, and everybody lives on credit. Suddenly, a rich tourist comes to town. He enters the only hotel, lays a 100 Euro note on the reception counter, and goes to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to choose one. The hotel proprietor takes the 100 Euro note and runs to pay his debt to the butcher. The butcher takes the 100 Euro note, and runs to pay his debt to the pig grower. The pig grower takes the 100 Euro note, and runs to pay his debt to the supplier of his feed and fuel. The supplier of feed and fuel takes the 100 Euro note and runs to pay his debt to the town's prostitute that in these hard times, gave her "services" on credit. The hooker runs to the hotel, and pays off her debt with the 100 Euro note to the hotel proprietor to pay for the rooms that she rented when she brought her clients there. The hotel proprietor then lays the 100 Euro note back on the counter so that the rich tourist will not suspect anything. At that moment, the tourist comes down after inspecting the rooms, and takes his 100 Euro note, after saying that he did not like any of the rooms, and leaves town. No one earned anything. However, the whole town is now without debt, and looks to the future with a lot of optimism. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how the United States is doing business today" - Email from Sanah Gumede, 18 August 2011, 12h13

I had an internal meeting at 13h00 and decided to share this story with my meeting and as I was reading, I appreciated its profound message even more so.

It is a reminder of how financial markets actually work. It reminded me of the sub-prime property bond models that spiralled into a financial markets disaster, a drying up of liquidity, an unprecedented credit crunch and, along with other factors, it all snowballed into what we experienced (and some may argue, still experience) as the Global Economic Crisis.

It is a timely reminder that in all the business models we hang our hats on, no matter how clever and 'cutting edge' it may seem, there are business fundamentals that remain a constant. If these business fundamentals are absent, it eventually shows.

You cannot argue that everyone in the story RECEIVED cash. You can even argue that everyone EARNED their 100 Euro note based on the services they provided prior to receiving payment and best of all, everyone used the cash to settle debt!

In 20 transactions that we come accross, we generally pursue 1. Very often we are on the receiving end of criticisim that we walk away from "great opportunities" because we are "far too commercial". It is somewhat ironic that some expect an investment firm NOT to be commercial in its investment decisions. You see, whether its time or money both are capital and one must be 'always commercial, seldom emotional' about deploying their capital.

If it doesnt make sense, its probably not worth pursuing.....not matter WHO is selling it.

Stay with the fundamentals.

AK

Province no. 10: Swaziland

The last few weeks have been rather busy for South Africa. We were meant to celebrate SA's successful hosting of the 2010 FIFA World Cup, but this celebration was marred by flashbacks of the sad and sudden passing of Nelson Mandela's grand-daughter tragically killed in a car accident en route home from a pre-World Cup concert. Condolences Tata & family!

Ironically, we also lost a Mother of our Liberation, Gogo Albertinah Sisulu two weeks ago. The nation bid their farewell to this icon in a packed Orlando Stadium, a historic football stadium a few kilometres from the arena where Siphiwe Tshabalala scored the first World Cup goal exactly 12 months ago. A fitting farewell to a true Mother of a Nation. Siyabonga Gogo for sharing all of yours with us!

Then we started with the “pick of the week” being the upcoming ANC Youth League Elective Conference. As I write this, I've just heard that  Malema's rival Maile was nominated and declined the nomination, paving the way for Malema to be re-elected unopposed. I wish the media spent as much editorial time and space on the ANCYL's economic policies deliberated at conference, as they did on the uneventful leadership race (what race?). Perhaps, we would have actually learned something about the League's argument for nationalisation of mines and banks and their policy of land redistribution.

But remember they are free not to teach us anything! It's called freedom of the press!

Anyway, Congratulations Juju!

In the latter part of last week, news hit the wires that Zimbabwe has asked the SA government for a R14 billion loan. This coming from a country whose national airline cannot afford to buy jet fuel as suppliers cut credit lines due to non-payment. Hint, Hint SA!

And while we were trying to get out heads around the idea of lending Zimbabwe ANY money, we hear that King Mswati III is having secret talks with President Zuma on a R10 billion loan. This is the same country with national GDP (+R26bn) less than the annual budget of The City of Jo'burg (+R28bn).

Who told everyone we won the Lotto?! I thought the white guy in Bloem got the R100m a few weeks ago? Or did he buy government bonds with his windfall? Why are our neighbours asking us for cash?

I'm no economist, but based on my UKZN Economics lectures, I'd say we are faced with somewhat of an commercial no-brainer, but a political conundrum.

When a lender, SA in this case, lends to a borrower, he would be concerned with the security of his debt, closely followed by the borrower's ability to service and eventually settle, even before he considers what return could be earned on the risk assumed. With due respect to the Sovereign State of Zimbabwe, I think it's safe to say neither debt security nor serviceability is feasible at this point, so a responsible lender would respectfully decline the application and duly encourage the would-be borrower to work on getting back to 'lendable' Net Asset Value and generate sustainable free cash flows.

But you see, SA can't really do that. Allow me to explain. They say "In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is King". You see a responsible King can't allow His subjects to proceed on a course of blindness irrespective who is responsible for such. And please note, it's the fact that He has one eye that makes him King. He is not anointed. There is no birthright. He doesn't ask to be made King, he is King by default, simply for having one eye among those with none. You see, SA has no choice. It's his duty to play King. It's not his choice. He must serve (and save) his people. Save them from themselves. After all, he's the guy with the eye! Right?

As for Swaziland, I have a rescue package for you Your Highness. Let's do a deal. You need some cash. I need to save your economy. Remember I'm the guy with the eye, so I kinda have no choice. All those other pale-skinned guys (read “countries”) with (apparently) two good eyes and bad weather, are gonna be looking at me saying: "How did you let this happen, SA? You have an eye, dude! You could see where this was going!". Operative word: "see"!

Anyway, I digress. Here’s the deal: I give you the R10 billion you want. To make the deal sweeter, you don’t ever, ever have to pay me back. To make it even more compelling, you don't have to even spend the money on your people (let's just assume that's what you would've done).

R10 billion, Your Excellency! In cold hard cash. Wonder why they call it cold!? Or hard?! I digress again!

All that Your Excellency for 100% of the country.

Come on, what do you say? With that kind of money, imagine how many more “you know whats” you can get? Last time I checked you were on 13. You could double that at a heart beat with R10 billion! What about the cars? The number of Mercedes-Benz's you could get with that kind of money? All bullet proof, Your Highness!

If you feel 100% is too much too soon to give up, I'm prepared for you to start out as my BEE partner. What does that mean? Well we got this thing called BEE in SA. Basically I take what's yours and sell it back to you at market, but then I make you feel really great about it cos I give you a BEE discount of say 10% of the value and then I assist you in raising funding to buy my shares in this thing that I actually took from you for close-to-nothing, but we need to get around a Companies Act thing that actually doesn't allow me to assist you in buying shares in myself, but at a fee advisors will find a complicated enough structure that will confuse everyone that it's okay and we can do our deal.

You get a front page article in the biggest business daily in town (you do have one of those, right?) and you become very popular among other broke people (but then again, you are already (in)famous), I get some BEE points and of course your country as my 10^th province!

Understand? I thought you would!

Think about all the benefits of this merger (Its a takeover really, but one doesn't use such emotive language at such a sensitive stage of negotiations). All the Swati people in SA are all automatically naturalised South Africans, No more Swazi border, all the South Africans in Mpumalanga who only speak Swati don't have to feel bad anymore, we finally bring Ster Kinekor to Mbabane, all the good black Swati golfers can play for South Africa and we can finally have a black golfer, and South Africans can stop claiming Phutuma Nhleko as their own, he actually becomes one of our own!

The possibilities are endless your Excellency. I patiently await your response.

PS: For my services in brokering this deal for you all I want is a young, hot “you know what”. Sadly I'm still on number 1.

Welcome!

One of the most fascinating things about growing up, is how much you learn about yourself. As much as I hate to admit it, I have learned that I am generally a late bloomer. I dont 'catch on' to things as quickly as most. I tend to take a little longer to really 'fall' for something. However, when I do eventually catch the bug, it tends to stay with me for a very long time.

I have seen this in my buying decisions in cars, clothes and even technology. I still cannot get myself onto Facebook although I'm a big fan of Twitter and a recent customer of LinkedIn, for instance. I am amazed at the amount of interest and value add derived from my Twitter posts and as a result this has encouraged me to write this blog.

You know, there are times when 140 characters just wont do!

And I guess there is something incredibly therapeutic about writing. I think most writers, at least the good ones, write for themselves perhaps more than they write for their prospective readers. That resonates with me.

We will focus on all matters relating to business in particular in technology, media and telecommunications. We will discuss new developments in South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa and the world over and disect what these actually mean.

I have this convinction, that has taken over my life.

I truly believe we are living in times of drastic change. I believe that our generation is going to drive the most dramatic change the world hs ever seen. Think about how the Internet, a discovery in our lifetime, has changed the world. Think about cellular phone technology, a discovery in our lifetime, has changed the world. Think about social media, smartphones, tablets, Android vs. IOS, broadband, wireless connectivity, freedoms, the emergence of the East, the anticipation of Africa, the recent challenges of the West.

All these tell me one thing: This is the most exciting time to be alive...EVER!

Share this ride with me!

AK